Australia coronavirus live update: Victoria records 73 new cases and 41 deaths as NSW records 10 new cases | Australia news

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I would hope we are in the ballpark of 40 or 50 by the end of the week.

SEMrush

We will see if that is the case. Again, there is a great deal of uncertainty around the tail of any epidemic.

We are in a way that is more complex than the first one we tackled that was international travellers and their close contact by and large with a little bit of community transmission.

We have had substantial community transmission, but as we get down to the 60, 70 numbers, we know that the number of mystery cases, community transition cases where we don’t know where they have acquired it, is getting to single figures.

It gives us a little bit more confidence that we can get on top of it, and with smaller numbers, we have greater and greater clarity around whether transmission is occurring.

What we don’t know is where we can’t see where transmission is occurring, and that is why the call for testing is so critical every day, and why the call for people to hold the course even as we get very low numbers is also absolutely critical, because holding the course is exactly the thing when we are getting down to those very low numbers that means that we can look at a summary that has some familiarity to us, we can see friends and family, we can go out to dinner, where we can have a Christmas dinner together, where we can enjoy those sunny days.

So the pain that is happening every day now, we are all fed up with it, absolutely fed up with it.

But holding the course, even as we get down to these very low numbers, is absolutely critical to get that control that we can be confident that we will maintain.

And our contact tracing now is at a point where every case is contacted within 24 hours.

Almost every case is interviewed within 24 hours. The only ones not interviewing others not answering the phone and can’t be found at home, or who are aged care residents who are a known part of an outbreak …

Every close contact is contacted within 48 hours so we have got robust contact tracing that is built over time and is now more than enough capacity for the numbers that we are seeing.

But we have to have both. Both in place and low enough numbers for it to be manageable on a day-to-day basis into the long-term, including when we had outbreaks, because a single case can cause 100 cases in a week.

A single case can cause 1,000 cases in a couple of weeks.

So we have to be mindful that even low numbers do not give you that absolute confidence that everything is in control and it is all going on the right direction.

Those critical settings are the ones to keep an eye on and we don’t know what we don’t know.

So testing has to happen and those difficult to identify populations who may or may not be presenting for care are also ones that we need to understand and reach into.



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