Players that could rise up for max-level rookie scale extensions

A year ago, few around the NBA were using ‘max deal’ in the context of D’Angelo Russell, but after an All-Star season, he got the bag. Who could be next?

NBA news on Thursday was dominated by talk of Bradley Beal‘s two-year extension with the Washington Wizards and Buddy Hield reportedly balking at a $90 million offer from the Sacramento Kings.

Yes, the 2016 NBA Draft class is up for rookie-scale extensions. Ben Simmons, the No. 1 overall pick, got his max deal — five years, $170 million — from the Philadelphia 76ers in July, while No. 7 overall pick Jamal Murray also hit the jackpot with the Denver Nuggets.

Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics is reportedly deep in discussions on an extension and there are reports he’s already turned down four years and $80 million, but president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said Thursday he’s confident a deal will get done before Monday’s deadline.

As for Hield, he’s taking a harder line with the Kings, calling Sacramento’s $90 million offer an “insult” and hinting he might have to find a franchise where he’s appreciated.

I think most of us would love to be insulted with almost nine figures in cash, but there is more than money at stake. With player salaries being so public, it’s a matter of competitive pride and of recognition.

When Player A knows he’s better than Player B and Player B just got a max deal, Player A is damn sure going to want his.

The most likely candidate at this point for a third max in the draft class is Pascal Siakam, the reigning Most Improved Player and new No. 1 option for the defending champion Toronto Raptors.

Siakam has been on a steady upward trajectory and will be asked to make the leap from Robin to Batman for a Raptors team that lost Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard via free agency. If Siakam is the cornerstone, it’s hard to envision  general manager Masai Ujiri playing too much hardball.

A year ago at this time, Karl-Anthony Towns had just secured a max extension from the Minnesota Timberwolves and Devin Booker of the Phoenix Suns had gotten his in July 2018. D’Angelo Russell, drafted by the Los Angeles Lakers and at that time with the Brooklyn Nets, was happy for his draft-night buddies, but was very interested in getting his bag filled to the top as well.

That notion wasn’t quite laughable at the time — or maybe it was worth a chuckle or two — but Russell did the work. He finished second to Siakam in the MIP voting, was selected for his first career All-Star Game and led a Brooklyn squad that improved by 14 victories over the previous season and reached the playoffs for the first time in four years.

And when he became a restricted free agent earlier this summer, Russell got what he was after –five years, $158.3 million (the max for his draft class) — from the Golden State Warriors, who acquired Russell in the rare two-way sign-and-trade deal, with Kevin Durant heading to Brooklyn.

Brown is certainly a candidate for a breakout. The third overall pick in 2016 lost his starting role last season and his per-game numbers went down accordingly. What was more troubling was his 3-point shooting dipped back to his rookie-season level after a sharp uptick in 2017-18.

Brown shot 46.5 percent overall — unchanged from the previous season — but his marksmanship from deep fell from 39.5 percent to 34.4 percent last season. Throw in that he’s still not a very good free throw shooter (65.8 percent last season and for his career) and there is a high ceiling for improvement.

Per 36 minutes, there was some improvement, but it was minimal. Scoring went up by 1.1 points, but he also took 1.5 more shots per 36. His rebounding, assists and steals were basically identical to his second season.

That was a disappointing outcome after a strong 2018 playoff showing. Brown put up 18.0 points per game as the Celtics reached Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, shooting 46.6 percent overall and 39.3 percent on 6.2 deep balls per game.

For Brown to make the DLo leap, he’ll have to become more efficient in sharing the basketball — an assist rate last season of 7.7 percent compared to a 10.1 turnover percentage tells the story of a player who often can suffer from tunnel vision once he gets the orange in his mitts.

Hield’s case for a max extension comes from a big leap last season — his first as a full-time starter in the NBA. Buddy Love improved his scoring per 36 minutes from 19.2 points to 23.3 and maintained his 3-point shooting percentage despite taking 1.7 more attempts per-36, up to 9.0, hitting 42.7 percent.

He also improved his rebounding and shot a career-best 45.8 percent overall. And in the era of load management, Hield was a throw-back player — starting all 82 games and averaging 31.9 minutes a night. He’ll be 27 in December — older than most of his 2016 draft contemporaries — but showed last season he can still get better.

The longer shots for max deals — and these likely would have to come in free agency next summer — are Domantas Sabonis of the Indiana Pacers and Brandon Ingram of the New Orleans Pelicans.

Sabonis made big strides last season, finishing second in the Sixth Man of the Year voting after putting up 14.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists in 24.8 minutes per game last season.

With Thaddeus Young gone, the Pacers are going to try to pair Sabonis and Myles Turner in the starting frontcourt. They used them as a tandem for just 429 minutes last season, with a decent net rating of plus-2.8, but it will be on Turner to be the one to stretch the floor, as Sabonis took only 17 3-point attempts in 74 games last season (he did make nine of them, however).

As a rookie, the Oklahoma City Thunder tried to turn Sabonis into a stretch 4, as he started 66 games and took 2.0 3-pointers per game, but made only 32.1 percent. Since coming to the Pacers in 2017, he’s been primarily the backup center.

The questions surrounding Sabonis’ ability to secure a max deal are two-fold: 1) Can he handle the increased workload of starter’s minutes and 2) can he cut down on a turnover rate that grew to a career-worst 16.2 percent last season.

The longest of the long shots is Ingram, who was on his was to a career year last season before missing the final 19 games with a blood clot in his left arm.

Injuries have been the issue for Ingram. After playing in 79 games as a rookie, he’s managed just 59 and 52 respectively in the next two seasons.

Ingram averaged a career-high 18.3 points per game and shot a career-best 49.7 percent overall, but his 3-point work slide from 39.0 percent to 33.0 percent and he’s still a sub-70 percent free throw shooter.

Given a new lease on life in New Orleans, Ingram has one season to show that he’s worth a max deal. Given that the Lakers, over his three seasons there, were 1.5 points better per 100 possessions when Ingram was on the bench, he’s got a steep hill to climb.

Getting his corner 3s back on track would be a great place to start that ascent. In 2017-18, Ingram made 44.8 percent from the corners, a figure that slipped to a career-worst 35.9 percent last season.

In any event, there’s no question that — barring something catastrophic — each one of these players listed here is going to make a big jump up the salary scale next season.

But can one of these guys be this season’s D’Angelo Russell?