Afghan government puts brave face on U.S. withdrawal but experts alarmed
Foreign correspondent covering Afghanistan, Pakistan, South Asia, Latin America and immigration
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Just a day ago, Afghan officials were concerned U.S. officials would make a too-hasty agreement with Taliban insurgents and potentially undermine the country’s security and democratic gains.
But by Friday morning, the government of President Ashraf Ghani was reeling from a much more concrete development — the news that President Trump planned to withdraw half of the 14,000 U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan — and his aides were scrambling to fashion a face-saving response.
The initial official response appeared to be an attempt to portray this massive reversal of U.S. policy after 17 years of war as no big deal — even as most political observers showed escalating levels of alarm.
Shortly after noon, Harun Chakhansuri, a top spokesman for Ghani, told Afghan TV that such a drawdown would have no major impact on Afghanistan’s ability to defend itself. He said that most of the U.S. forces likely to be withdrawn “are engaged in a training and advising mission for Afghan forces, and Afghan forces are capable of defending the country.”
Several hours later, Fazl Fazili, another aide to Ghani, echoed that assessment, tweeting that the departure of a “few thousand” foreign military advisers would not affect Afghan security. In a second tweet, he said that since 2014, when most U.S. combat forces left the country, those who predicted a military collapse were proven wrong, and “our brave defense & security forces . . . defended the nation with great valor.”
The optimistic comments contrasted sharply with the alarmed reactions and dire predictions of most analysts, former officials and political figures in Afghanistan Friday, as well as those of officials and observers in next-door Pakistan.
In both countries, a variety of observers said they feared that a sudden unilateral pullback of U.S. troops could usher in a period of political instability, give the Taliban insurgents extra power at the negotiating table or sabotage the peace talks entirely, and leave Afghanistan more vulnerable to violence and terrorist attacks.
[Trump orders major military withdrawal from Afghanistan as Mattis departs]
Many drew comparisons to the U.S. withdrawal of support from Afghanistan in 1989 after the end of Soviet military occupation, which led to a government collapse in Kabul, a destructive civil war among ethnic militias and a huge exodus of refugees.
“A U.S. military drawdown will strengthen the Taliban’s position in the peace negotiations and precipitate political chaos in Kabul,” putting a constitutional transfer of power through elections in doubt, said Haroon Mir, a political analyst in Kabul. He said regional powers will again jockey for influence but none will be able to “fill the political or economic vacuum left after a U.S. exit. Ultimately, history will repeat itself.”
Naqi Farooqi, 24, an unemployed Afghan with a law degree in Kabul, said he feared that the pullback of U.S. forces would allow the return of Taliban rule and the shutting down of social and press freedoms, which the country has enjoyed since the Taliban regime was overthrown in 2001.
“The Taliban will come if the U.S. troops withdraw,” said Farooqi, who was waiting for an Indian film showing at a local movie theater with some friends. “People do not want the Taliban back. The U.S. forces should stay longer until Afghanistan can stand on its feet, economically and militarily,” he said.
In Pakistan, a senior official at the Foreign Ministry offered an almost identical view to that of Mir, adding that Pakistan could face an additional burden if political turmoil or insecurity send a new wave of Afghans fleeing across the border. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the topic.
“Any troop withdrawal or major reduction in their number before peace is restored would be a very unwise move,” the official said. “It would bring chaos and disorder, more fighting and perhaps a civil war. He noted that after the withdrawal of U.S. support in 1989, and the turmoil that followed, “Pakistan too had to bear the brunt of what happened . . . we would not like to see a repeat of that.”
Mushahid Hussain, chairman of Pakistan’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said a U.S. troop drawdown would be “an admission of defeat in America’s longest war” and “the biggest military setback for the U.S.” since the fall of Saigon in 1975. He said it would increase Washington’s dependence on Pakistan as a force for peace in Afghanistan and could lead to a postponement of Afghan elections “to pave the way” for a broad unity government including the Taliban.
Until recently, U.S. officials have accused Pakistan of playing a double game, paying lip service to peace talks while harboring anti-Afghan Taliban militia forces. But in recent months, under a new prime minister, Pakistan has worked to convince the United States of its sincere interest in peace and sent representatives to peace talks last week in the UAE with U.S., Saudi and Taliban delegations.
Observers in both countries said they could not understand why Trump would suddenly decide to withdraw thousands of troops at a time when negotiations were finally beginning to gain traction. The Taliban have long demanded a total departure of U.S. forces, but many other issues are on the table, and the insurgents seemed to show their seriousness by sending an unusually senior group to the UAE talks.
Amrullah Saleh, a former chief of the Afghan intelligence agency, said in an email that Trump’s plan to cut back troops shows that he sees Afghanistan as a “burden, not a strategic & necessary ally.” He said there had been “no progress” in peace talks and “no sign” of Pakistan halting support to the Taliban, and now the country faces an additional threat of flagging U.S. military assistance.
“Maybe it will be the end for the US, but a bitter beginning for us,” he said.
Constable reported from Islamabad. Sayed Salahuddin and Sharif Hassan contributed from Kabul and Shaiq Hussain contributed from Islamabad.
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